Every Celtics fan wanted this deep down. Everyone in the world wanted this. Heat vs the Celtics. This will be an all out war. It will be heart wrenching and fun. Everyone wants to see the Heat lose, but I think actually being the ones to beat them will make it all the more better. I'm going to break this series down assuming Shaq will not play a single minute.
Overall: The Heat are probably a more talented team on paper. The only problem for the Heat is that the game is played on a court, by players, not on paper, by analysis. The Celtics have been pretty dominate on the wing with Pierce and Allen, but look for that to drop a little bit for the most part of this series because James and Wade are some of the top wing defenders we have. I'm going to actually give them and advantage here with few little disclaimers. 1. The only one stopping Ray Allen is Ray Allen. If he's shooting well it really doesn't matter, he's gonna get his. You could be the best wing defender in the world it won't matter. Also, the fact D Wade will chase Ray Allen all over the court for a whole series will effect his offense. I'm giving Wade an advantage in this match up for the obvious reasons, but Ray has the little advantages that over a long series will add up. Wade will score 30 points at least twice. But so what. Ray Allen will have two nights where he can't miss. They'll balance out. Lebron vs Pierce, well, of course Lebron is a more skilled basketball player. But for the most part pf Lebron's career, Pierce has gotten the better of him. We aren't talking about a couple games here we are talking about a lot of games and a handful of big games, Pierce just flat out out balls Lebron. I'm not sure why, or what it is about Pierce's game that bothers Lebron but Pierce has his number. Lets give Lebron the advantage here anyway for the sake of science. Not by much though. Lets move on to Bosh vs Garnett. You have to give a huge advantage here to Garnett. Why you ask? Am I a biased idiot who just picks my favorite players. No, look at the facts. Who's a better offensive player. Bosh. No doubt Bosh has a bigger offensive arsenal. It's not a drastic advantage but it's decent enough. Who's a better defender? Duh. And that advantage is very drastic. Garnett is one of the leagues best defenders where Bosh is one of the leagues worst. By the stats, Bosh is the third worst at his position on defense. What does all this mean exactly? Well, Garnett's defense is strong enough to take Bosh out of the game for the most part, but Bosh's defense isn't strong enough to remove Garnetts offense. Which leaves Bosh a useless waste of space. Also, the way the Celtics play defense, like a team, Bosh will have to worry about weak side help, J.O. and friends, swatting their big as hands at everything he puts up. And my last point on this topic, Bosh is a pussy. I know, it has nothing to do with basketball right...no wrong...it has a lot to do with it. Bosh doesn't like getting hit. It makes him take stupid jump shots. Remember this next statement when you watch the series. "Chris Bosh will start off as the confident, finess, post player we know him as in game 1, and as the series goes on he'll turn into a jump shooter that become irrelevant."
Moving on to the center position. Well, assuming J.O. plays at the same level, we have the advantage there. I think we even need to go ahead and exploit it. (God help Miami if Shaq even plays a little bit) I don't think it's a stretch to say Krstic has the advantage over any center they throw out there. Which brings me to a point I always make over and over again when talking about playoff basketball. Miami is a running team. Running teams don't win in the playoffs. Their inability to slow down the game when they need too will doom them against the Celtics. They have no one to throw the ball down low too and say, here big guy, get us an easy two. The Celtics don't really have that either unless Shaq plays, but they have another guy named Rondo who can control the pace of the game in other ways. Speaking of Rondo lets talk about the point guard match up. One of the main reasons I think the Celtics will win this series is the way Rondo has played so far in the playoffs. If he even comes close to what he did in NY, who's gonna stop him? Mike Bibby? The Heat have 3 gaping holes that Rondo exploits, and the reason the Celtics will win this series.
1. Lebron and Wade both have problems playing off the ball, partly because they are used to having the ball all the time but mostly because they don't have a point guard who can distribute the ball well and feel the game. This will hurt them.
2. They have no true big man so it allows Rondo to go deep in the lane and then create open looks for a Ray Allen, or a paul Pierce. (Some silly idiot is reading this and saying but Lebron or Wade can do the same thing. And yes, your right, but the whole idea is to have the play made FOR your best scorer, not BY your best scorer.)
3. Closing time. Lets be real. We've all seen the numbers. Crunch time has been a big problem for the Heat all year. I think there 1/17 or some crazy stat like that in the final 24 seconds of a game and being down by 3 or less. This is a point guard problem. You need a guy who has been calling the game, knows the feel of them game, knows who's hot, who's not, and someone who can make a good decision. The Heat don't have this because they don't have a real point guard. Instead they same here you go Lebron, go make one. Such a cop out. Run a fucking play. Or don't and keep losing.
Game by Game
Game 1. Celtics win 92-88. I believe this week off will help them. Doc will be better prepared. They'll have the in's and out's down. Of course this is the Heat's home floor so I think they'll lead for most of the game and then they'll blow it in the final minutes because of what we just talked about. Final minute execution.
Game 2. Heat win 101-92. They'll have to win one of the home games or they'll be a joke.
Game 3. Celtics win in some kind of lop sided blow out.
Game 4. Celtics take care of it again riding a hot Paul Pierce. (Seriesly, look for Paul to have a huge game 4. 29 points)
Game 5 Heat make it interesting sending the series back to Boston.
Game 6. Celtics close it out winning by 15 points. Proving the Heat still have a long way to go.
P.S. I really miss Tony Allen.....the guy took the Boston defensive mindset to Memphis and it worked. He's awesome. I love how the Celtics D, is spreading throughout the league, Perk for the Thunder, Allen in Memphis....Tom for the Bulls.....Doc must feel like a proud father.
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