NBA PLAYOFFS Round 2 Preview

The first round is in the books (as is Game 1 of the second round for both Boston/Miami and OKC/Memphis) and we're on to the Conference Semifinals.

In my playoff power rankings I touched on a few things that proved to be correct, and a few things I narrowly missed on. The Hornets did need Chris Paul to play other-wordly to beat the Lakers, and for two games he was just that. Unfortunately, they couldn't expect him to do that for the whole series and Los Angeles survived an ugly 1st round series. I also mentioned that everyone was loving Portland but I still had a feeling Dallas might have one more run in the tank...and it looks like they do. On the other hand I gave Indiana no chance to win a game against Chicago and they took two! Chicago doesn't look nearly as scary when Rose is shooting poorly. I also misread the ORL/ATL series in round one, despite the fact that my gut told me Orlando was really bad. I still don't believe in Atlanta much, but hopefully they can make the series with Chicago entertaining.

And with that...let's get into some series previews.


EASTERN CONFERENCE

1. Chicago Bulls vs. 5. Atlanta Hawks

Indiana did exactly what any team should try and do against the Bulls - which is to try and contain Rose to long jumpers and trap him off of pick and rolls. They had some success, although Rose ultimately was too much to handle with his athleticism. Let's get this out there right now - you can't keep him away from the rim for a whole game unless he decides to do so. He isn't a high percentage shooter, and certainly wasn't shooting well against Indiana, but he still gets his points on layups, dunks and free throws when he's not going well. Keeping him out of the paint and off the line will be paramount to Atlanta's success. The Hawks will also want to keep a long arm in the face of Kyle Korver who was a big shot factory in round one. I normally hate on Korver pretty hard but he was big in round one, when no other Bulls were really stepping up.
Carlos Boozer can sometimes struggle against lengthy defenders like Horford and Pachulia, so it will be key for Noah to have a big series on both ends.

Bulls win if...Rose is Rose and scores and distributes. (I know sounds simple, but I really think that is all they need.)

Hawks win if...Rose continues poor shooting, or gets banged up and Joe Johnson starts earning some of that contract he got.

PREDICTION - Bulls in 5.



2. Miami Heat vs. 3. Boston Celtics

Game one is already in the books, and we know what happened there. Pierce came unraveled and Wade had a tremendous game as Miami jumped to an early big lead and never looked back.
Three things concern me about the first game for the Celtics.
1) Rondo lacked the aggression he showed through most of the NYK series. (Although to be fair, he was in foul trouble)
2) Jermaine O'Neal was nowhere to be found. (He was huge against Knicks and needs to be in this series. He should be tearing up Joel Anthony on both ends)
3) Lack of effort. All game long it looked like they were reaching for loose balls and grasping as Heat players as they got burned on D, instead of moving their feet and getting after it. After a long break they shouldn't come out like that - and you know Doc was on 'em about it. I don't expect that to last, but it needs to change fast.

Van Gundy and company made a salient point yesterday in that Miami has the most athletic perimeter in the league and the extra pass (something Boston usually does quite well) will be key in this series. And on defense they really need to stay home on James Jones and Mike Miller and get their rotations tighter.
Look for Miami to exploit their athleticism all series long and the drive and dish for three should be their main weapon of choice.

Miami wins if...Rondo can't destroy MIA PGs and Wade and James display great cohesion.

Boston wins if...They use their veteran presence to get under skin on Miami role players - and King James for that matter. (NOT reacting like Pierce did yesterday.)

PREDICTION - Boston in 7.



WESTERN CONFERENCE

2. Los Angeles Lakers vs. 3. Dallas Mavericks

Hard to believe but this is the first time in the "Dirk/Kobe" era that these two have met in the playoffs. It should be a great series both on and off the court, as I can't wait to see some Mark Cuban shenanigans and hopefully some firing back and forth between he and Zen Master Phil.
As I think about this series, I'm not really sure what to make of it. Part of me wants to think Dallas has a real shot - especially with the Lakers recent play and Kobe maybe a bit banged up and certainly getting long in the tooth. However, I just think LA has been doing this too long, and ultimately Kobe, Gasol, Odom and Bynum will be too much for Dirk and company. However, if Jason Kidd can exploit the PG position somewhat like Chris Paul - obviously in a much less dynamic fashion - and Jason Terry can shake loose for his patented big shots they might be able to pull it off. I think stealing a game 1 in LA would be a huge boost to the effort.

Los Angeles wins if... Gasol comes out of his hole and starts resembling the player that we saw in last year's playoffs and they dominate the glass.

Dallas wins if... Dirk plays huge all series and Chandler can make Gasol into a jelly donut like New Orleans did.


PREDICTION - Los Angeles in 6.



4. Oklahoma City Thunder vs. 8. Memphis Grizzlies

Memphis took game one on the road in convincing fashion yesterday. It might be time to start believing in Memphis. They basically tore up a dilapidated San Antonio team, and have now taken the home court from Oklahoma City - who many saw as the best team in the West. Zach "Zebo" Randolph has been huge in these playoffs and the Grizzlies actually have a very 'OKC up-and-comer' type of feel about them. They are a fairly young team with nothing to lose and playing with a certain swagger. It also seems that Pau had his mojo stolen by his little brother, Marc Gasol who is playing as well as Pau is playing poorly.
On the other hand, if OKC can avoid panicking and another me-against-the-world type of game from Russell Westbrook they should still pull this series out.

Oklahoma City wins if... Durant gets off and Westbrook reverts back to his "Robin" ways and quits trying to play "Batman". (That's Durant's job)

Memphis wins if... Zebo keeps playing well and Durant gets shutdown by Tony Allen and the Grizzlie perimeter defenders.

PREDICTION - Oklahoma City in 7

NBA Playoff Power Rankings - Western Conference

Here's how I see the Western Conference stacking up, power ranking wise as he go into the playoffs tomorrow night. Again, this isn't necessarily how I think things will finish, but gives a different perspective than the rankings. This conference is FAR more interesting than the East again this year, although the East is catching up a bit.
Let's get right to it.

#1 Oklahoma City Thunder

Yea, I said it. OKC is atop my power rankings in the West. Not the Lakers who are the prohibitive favorite. Not the Spurs who have the league's best record. We don't know what Bynum will be able to provide and Manu is dealing with some health issues as well. Do I think the Thunder are going to win the title this year? I don't know. Probably not, but right now I think they're playing the best ball.
Obviously, they have Durant and Westbrook leading the way. But some might not have noticed the tear Serge Ibaka has been on since the trade of Jeff Green and the acquisition of Kendrick Perkins. Playing at his normal position Ibaka has been able to score more in a variety of ways and is a menace to opposing power forwards. Even better than Ibaka's surge (that's pretty fucking good right there!) has been that of James Harden since the trade. Harden has taken the bulk of the offensive void left by Green and he has finally stepped up to the point where he may no longer be a total bust at #3 overall.
Of course there is that whole experience thing. OKC is still very young and only has last year's playoff loss to build on. They added Perkins who has a ring, but he was always a quiet guy in the room in Boston so don't expect him to really be a team leader. He is what he is. A very physical defensive minded center.

OKC wins if... They aren't phased by the big stage and relish the moment.

OKC loses if... Harden can't be relied on to make that big shot when Durant and Westbrook are under pressure.


#2 Los Angeles Lakers

Still most likely the team to beat out of the West, especially if Bynum's injury doesn't prove to be a major issue. If it is then they could be in a bit of hot water. Kobe's frustration has been bubbling over for a couple weeks now, as evidenced by his outburst the other night. The game doesn't come so easy to Bryant anymore. Watching the Lakers what really stands out his how incredibly hard he has to work for just about every bucket now. Anyone else notice his dunks just barely sneaking over the rim now? Dude's gonna be laying it in before too long. Regardless, I think the old dog still has one more great fight in him, and his intensity is infectious - mostly because you know Pau Gasol, or poopface as I like to call him, is scared shitless of Bryant.
The other key component could be old friend Ron Artest. He just doesn't seem to have the focus he had last season, and especially in the playoffs. If he gets it together and gives them something positive, that could be all they need.

Lakers win if... Kobe doesn't become a black hole when he's not hot, and he gets some help from his teammates (which will aide in the former.)

Lakers lose if... Bynum can't get right, and Kobe hogs the ball even though he's not productive.

#3 Dallas Mavericks

Everyone likes to hate on this team, and right now Portland is the sexy upset pick. Beware of the upset pick that EVERYONE seems to like. Let's not forget Dallas finished the year with 57 wins, tied with LA for the 2nd most in the West. Dirk Nowitzki is money in the playoffs. The last 3 seasons he's averaged 26 and 10 come playoff time. He will get his. It's just a matter of whether or not Jason Terry and Jason Kidd and the rest of the Mavs can provide enough help.
Tyson Chandler has given them an interior presence they have never had during Dirk's time in Dallas. He operates in the post and allows Dallas to score from the perimeter, which is their bread and butter.
All that being said, this team still has a lot of questions. The biggest one being, is the window closed? I'm not sure about that and if ever there was a year for them this might be it. Bynum might be hurt, Kobe is older, San Antonio is also banged up and not as fresh as they once were. You know Dirk is hungry for a ring, but who knows if they can play tough enough to get one. Nonetheless, the Mavs are a fun team to watch.

Mavericks win if... Dirk is a star and Terry closes in the 4th.

Mavericks lose if... Pace of play gets too fast and Dirk isn't able to get his spots.

#4 San Antonio Spurs

I like, Ric Bucher, think the Spurs are a bit of a fraud. I'm not sure I trust this team to make another deep run into the playoffs. And in fact, I think they could get a lot of trouble from Memphis if they're not careful. However, the arguments made against the Celtics are the same ones that can be made against the Spurs, and I certainly haven't counted out the C's. The deciding factor could be the health of Manu Ginobili who I would argue is the focus of the offense now, and not Tim Duncan. He is currently listed as doubtful for the opening game, which will mean added pressure on Gary Neal and George Hill to put the ball in the basket. That means a much easier matchup for trick or treat Tony Allen if Manu has to sit out.
When all is said and done, I'm not sure I can bet against these experienced vets and arguably the Coach of the Year in Greg Popovich. But it won't be a hefty bet.

Spurs win if... Manu can play at full strength and role players like, Neal and Bonner give them big contributions.

Spurs lose if... Manu isn't ready to go and Neal
and Hill can't carry the load.


#5 Portland Trail Blazers

The Blazers pulled off the deal of the season when they hoisted Gerald Wallace from Charlotte. He gives them the depth they've always needed by pushing guys like Fernandez and Batum and most importantly Brandon Roy to the bench. This team now has tremendous depth, amid the emergence of Lamarcus Aldridge as a bonafide stud this season.
Aldridge should get strong consideration for most improved player this season (although it will probably be Luis Scola). He can score in a variety of ways, and has really improved his toughness in the interior - one area I always thought he was lacking. He'll need to continue playing at that level for Portland to make a real run.
One thing to be nervous about as a Blazers fan would be that everyone is all over them right now as the sexy upset pick. The ingredients are all there but who knows if they'll be able to execute when push comes to shove.

Blazers win if... Aldridge plays well and Roy comes off the bench and is productive.

Blazers lose if... Aldridge shrinks under pressure and Roy is relied upon to do too much.


#6 Denver Nuggets

I feel like everyone is just writing this team off, but they've played great since the Melo trade and have a lot of good mojo working in their favor. They have the whole George Karl recovering from cancer feel-good story and got rid of Melo's big ego for a bunch of unselfish players who have come in and played very well together right away.
The Nuggets are the league leader in offensive efficiency, and have a plethora of offensive options. they kind of remind me of an offensive minded Detroit Pistons team that won it all in 2004. They have no All-Stars on the roster but they have great chemistry and they execute their game plan extremely well. Dano Galinari has played very well They also have J.R. Smith who when he is hot can definitely carry a team to a huge victory. Nene is in my opinion the most underrated Center in the league, and doesn't back down from anyone. They also have a little nastiness in Kenyon Martin, which you need to win in the playoffs.
I like this teams make-up, but unfortunately the West is so good I'm not sure they can escape the first round.

Nuggets win if... They get hot from 3 point range and protect home court.

Nuggets lose if... Play gets sloppy and they can't get stops because they're out of rhythm.

#7 Memphis Grizzlies

Some people are saying Memphis can pull the upset in round one. Indeed they've been a vast improved team this season - despite missing Rudy Gay for the most important stretch. However, I think LA would have been a better round one matchup as crazy as that sounds. Zebo, or Zach Randolph as he is commonly known, has put up arguably the best numbers of anyone not being paid attention to over the last couple seasons. It's like the whole tree-falls-in-a-forest type of thing. He should be on full display for this playoff series, and I can't wait to see what he does. If he can draw Duncan out to the perimeter and get him into foul trouble that could be great news for Memphis. The key to the series though should be Tony Parker vs Mike Conley. If Conley is able to get off and distribute and score the Grizz might have a shot. However, he'll have his hands equally full trying to guard the pesky Parker.

Grizzlies win if...Zebo can outplay Duncan by a wide margin.

Grizzlies lose if...Tony Parker destroys Mike Conley and Tony Allen is in foul trouble.


#8 New Orleans Hornets

Chris Paul...blah blah blah. I saw on Sports Nation where Chris Paul is supposed to be a better clutch player than Kobe because he performs better in the 4th quarter than just about anyone. That is example number 1,347,856 why you can't just go by numbers. I like Chris Paul, but the Hornets don't stand much of a chance here.
Seems like a long friggin time ago that the Hornets sat atop these power rankings, but it was only November. How things have changed. They are 14 out of the 16 playoff teams in offensive efficiency.
I don't really even want to waste a whole lot of time on this team. I hope they get contracted along with a few other teams.

Hornets win if...Chris Paul is a world beater and puts this team on his back.

Hornets lose if...Paul is anything short of what I just mentioned (even if he plays very well).

NBA Playoff Power Rankings

I was gonna do a final power rankings heading into the final week of the season, last week. However, I didn't really feel like writing about all the teams that were no longer compelling and decided to hold off and rank the playoff teams. Obviously, this isn't just ranking them by seed or that would be exceedingly boring. Here's how I think the teams stack up based on their play headed into the most exciting stretch of the season. Let's start with the Eastern Conference.

EAST

#1 Chicago Bulls -

To put another team here would be kind of silly. Since Thanksgiving this has been the best team in the NBA at 54-15. They're also the hottest team in the league at 9-1 over their last 10, including an utter dismantling of a beat up Boston squad. Derrick Rose is essentially the unquestioned MVP among the media types, and has certainly been displaying some dazzling play.
Chicago ranks first in the NBA in defensive efficiency - which may surprise some who view them as a great offensive team. However, Coach Thibs has brought his signature defense to Chicago and they do a terrific job locking down teams and creating off of turnovers - much like the Celtics did under his tutelage. They are also the top offensive rebounding club in the East, which could be huge in tight, physical games as the playoffs wear on.
That defensive mindset they've adopted should help them in the playoffs, although this group of Bulls, with Boozer in the mix, doesn't have any playoff experience on their side. Nonetheless, their body of work has to make them the favorites to come out of the East.

Bulls win if... Rose continues his MVP play and they continue to create extra possessions with offensive boards.

Bulls lose if... Rose goes cold or gets too keen on scoring the ball and forgets to distribute.


#2 Boston Celtics -

Yes. I know they're bumbling their way into the playoffs. But take a second to think back to how they played last year heading into the playoffs. Hard to believe, but it was actually worse. They were getting stomped by bad teams, and still made an epic run to the finals only to lose in 7 games to the Lakers. Fool me once, shame on you. I was all over the C's last season saying that they didn't have a chance. Fool me twice shame on me. I'm not betting against this team of vets - although I'm also not counting on Shaqachusetts to give us anything more than a few decent games. Paul Pierce demonstrated in the most recent game at Madison Square Garden that he has as much want-to as anyone in the league. And he can still get it going when the bright lights are on.
I think resting the guys and settling for #3 was the best move possible. They get a reeling Knicks team in round 1, got some rest and most importantly got some time to practice hard heading into the playoffs. I know the haters will say they don't have Perk, but the defensive numbers have been better since the trade. The offense has been the problem. I'm not scared of Joel Anthony or Rony Turiaf. The Perk hole shouldn't be noticed until they face the Bulls if that happens. Rondo can not have bad games in the playoffs if this team is going to win. Their run will depend on his play and if Paul is able to find that big game mojo.

Celtics win if...Big 3 stay healthy, Shaq plays solid minutes and Rondo distributes.

Celtics lose if...Rondo plays poorly, any injury to a key player or new guys can't find a way to gel with the vets.


#3 Miami Heat -

Combining offensive efficiency and defensive efficiency, this is the best team in the NBA. They average 109.3 points per 100 possessions (3rd in NBA) and give up a stout 100.7 (5th). They are the only team in the top 5 in both categories. That combination is going to make this team a very tough out - despite what any haters might have to say. They are also 2nd in the NBA in true shooting percentage.
So what could possibly hold this team back? Well, for starters they have never been through the playoffs together. This will be the Heatles first real test under pressure. If Lebron reverts to his early season ways and defers too often to his teammates they may be in trouble. They are at their best when he is attacking. At 8-2 in their last 10 they've been at their best often of late.
However, teams like Boston, Orlando and Chicago can still give them fits if they can get plenty of low-post scoring.
The other problem could be free throws. Miami ranks 6th among East playoff teams in FT % and is the only East playoff team other than Milwaukee and Orlando to give up more Free Throw Attempts than they take. We all know about Lebron's FT struggles. Under the pressure of the big moment, that could be compounded.

Heat win if... Wade and James play aggressive and Bosh knocks down some shots.

Heat lose if... James and Wade can't find a balance in play-off atmosphere, or Bosh folds under pressure and physical play.


#4 Orlando Magic -

To be honest, I really think there is a big drop-off in the East after the top 3 teams. If one of the other 5 teams makes an appearance in the EC Finals I will be pretty shocked. From the beginning of the year, many media members have been hyping this team as a finals threat. I recall Barkley saying on TNT that Orlando was assuredly going to the Finals, and basically wrote everyone else off. Funny how no one brings that up now. I'm sorry, I'm just not buying this team anymore. I will buy on Dwight Howard all day every day but this isn't really a big man's league. You need one or two good ones to win, but a great one on his own can't get the job done.
Orlando is far too reliant on the 3-pointer, but not nearly good enough at shooting it. They're 9th in the league in true shooting, though they are far too streaky and every good defensive team will let Dwight have his and close out on the perimeter players.

Magic win if... Nelson, Redick and co. knock down 3's with consistency.

Magic lose if... Howard is the focal point of their offense.


#5 New York Knicks

I'm not really buying this team as much as I just can't stand the rest of the teams that rank below them in the East. If 1-3 has a drop-off it might be even more severe from the 4 spot to the 5-8 teams. The Knicks play no defense. That isn't something that you can just start doing in big moments. I love how this team made one good defensive stand all season against Miami and everyone wanted to talk about how they could play defense if they wanted to. In the words of Chad Ochocinco - "Child, please." If we haven't learned by now that a D'Antoni team isn't going to play defense then we really need to pull our heads out of our asses.
That being said, his teams in Phoenix made regular deep runs in the West by merely outscoring weaker opponents. The problem here is the Celtics are not a weaker opponent in the first round. Amare and Melo is a nice 1-2 on paper, and they can certainly light it up on the big stage in MSG. However, I haven't seen them put together a stretch where both are playing at an elite level the way Lebron and DWade can. Two forwards just doesn't really do it for me. They need a basketball team. The D'Antoni system thrives on motion and ball movement. Problem is Amare and Melo (especially) are both ball stoppers.

Knicks win if... Melo and Stat both go crazy and have a huge series, and they get a boost from MSG playoff atmosphere.

Knicks lose if... Melo becomes a volume shooter.

#6 Atlanta Hawks

We've been watching this core unit of Josh Smith, Joe Johnson and Al Horford for a few years. Looks like a great team, right? Problem is they haven't been able to get over that hump of making the playoffs and turning it into a deep run. A few years ago they took the Celtics to 7 games and everyone thought they might finally emerge. 3 years later we're still waiting for the same thing.
I just can't buy this team as a contender anymore.
Zaza Pachulia should serve as a nice breakfast for Dwight Howard as he eats him up in the paint in round one.
The Hawks are 28th in the league in rebounding and 22nd in the league in rebounding differential. That does not bode well for their playoff hopes. On top of that they are 15th in defensive efficiency and give up more points per 100 possessions than they score. Indiana is the only other playoff team to do that.

Hawks win if... Josh Smith averages close to a triple-double and Joe Johnson plays like the go-to scorer that he is paid to be.

Hawks lose if... They don't find a way to keep opponents off the glass.


#7 Philadelphia 76ers

This is a feisty team that Coach Collins has playing hard every night. Andre Igoudala is their Mr. Everything, and he's going to have to be healthy and productive in order for them to have any kind of shot in round one. Some have compared him to Scottie Pippen for the way he contributes in multiple categories. The numbers might look nice, but he's not on Scottie's planet. Jrue Holiday and Lou Williams provide a nice 1-2 punch from the PG spot which could be their best bet in attacking Miami, since Bibby can't guard anyone.
Philly likes to play uptempo and they'll need to create turnovers that produce points if they're going to win. Among East playoff teams they were 3rd in steals differential, so they have that going for them.

Sixers win if... Igoudala plays like a superstar and the Sixers are able to score in transition.

Sixers lose if... Pace of play slows down.


#8 Indiana Pacers

Why is this team in the playoffs? I wish the NBA took the top 16 teams. That would be a little more exciting. Nonetheless, this Pacers squad does have a little star power in Danny Granger who is probably the best player known by the fewest amount of people. Josh McRoberts is playing better than probably anyone expected and Roy Hibbert has found his groove a bit this season.
However, this team has no shot of advancing past round one, and in fact I would say that they have very little shot at winning a game.
This is a very middle of the road team, and not a lot worth tuning in for except to see Danny Granger - though he'll likely be the focus of the opponents defense so who knows how much he'll really do.

Pacers win if... Derrick Rose gets hurt in game 1 and can't return.

Pacers lose if... Let's be honest, this is most likely.